Gringo's Eleventh Oscar Prediction Funfest
Written By: Gringo

Yay! The 84th Annual Academy Awards ceremony is fast approaching!

On Sunday February 26th a bunch of overpaid pretentious cunts -- plus Oscar-nominated actor Jonah Hill, soon to be seen in the hard-hitting drama 21 Jump Street -- will be subjecting television viewers around the globe to hour after hour of back-slapping and self-indulgence.

But I don't want you think I'm being cynical. Heavens no! I'm approaching it with a wide grin on my face because I am 99.9% certain (thanks, Ziggy!) that I won't be watching the show. If my last few Sundays have been anything to go by, I should imagine my day of rest will involve waking up around noon with a pounding headache, struggling to consume even a cup of coffee, forcing myself into a half-assed workout, and then spending the sunset hours staring with dead, unblinking eyes at a computer screen at shirtless pictures of Taylor Lautner* while drool slowly seeps out my mouth.

* I meant Taylor Swift. Ahem.

The Academy Award for Best Music (Original Song)
“Man or Muppet” from The Muppets
“Real in Rio” from RIO

Although I'm not a fan of the Oscars, I feel that after 10 years of writing these stupid Academy Award prediction pieces I'd be offending my own OCD by not putting out another.

I'm also very lazy, so I scanned the list of nominations to find one with the least number of candidates. Mercifully there are just two nominees for best original song.

This is one of those rare years where I've seen more than a minimal percentage of the movies nominated. Sure, it helps that there are only two songs -- and therefore two movies -- nominated in this category, but shut your face, all right? I saw The Muppets but I didn't see RIO. I doubt I ever will see RIO. And I'm struggling to know why RIO is written all in capital letters.

Either way, on to the prognosticating!

“Man or Muppet” from The Muppets

Jason Segel's face is like a broken potato.

Now I got that out the way, let's discuss the finer points of this song. The Muppets featured several new winnable songs, and my preference would have been for the main anthem “Life's A Happy Song” to have received Oscar's nod. But then again I'm not a member of the Academy, mostly because I lack many things necessary: money, Hollywood connections, talent.

But this song would seem to hit a few relevant targets. It moves the plot forward. It's catchy. It's entertaining. The Oscar should go to this song, especially considering the contender.

Chance of winning: 51%

“Real in Rio” from RIO

Internet, I hope you're happy. I went above and beyond the call of duty for this article by finding the above-mentioned song from RIO and listening to its entirety.

Here is how the writing went for “Real in Rio,” as far as I can tell: “Hey! Rio is colorful! People in Brazil sure like to party and bang drums and chant in unison! Let us take all that noise and make everyone shout 'RIO' many many times. Oscar success is for us!”

It's not memorable. It's not fun to listen to. It's a hot mess of a song. It's like that friend you never saw drunk before who decides that this Friday night is the one where she's going to cut loose. So she downs too much vodka when you're pre-gaming and then hogs the beer keg before doing some late-night shots with the new bro Chad she just met. Evening of course ends with her sobbing into a jumbo slice of pizza, bitching about how Chad made out with Eliza. RIO is that part of that night where your friend is being VERY LOUD and dancing frantically -- like a video of an air stewardess giving the in-flight safety demonstration except sped up about 50 times.

I really don't care for the song and hope it doesn't win.

Chance of winning: 49%

But Gringo! The excitement! Who will win?!

This category really is a coin-toss. Almost.

One would think that nostalgia for The Muppets would give that movie a guaranteed win in this category. Plus the song is quite enjoyable and certainly far less irritating than the noisy mess represented by RIO's headache-inducing number.

However, I think the Academy tends by and large to be made up of misguided clowns who don't know quality when they see it. And I can't help but get a weird vibe that the Oscars really dislike the Muppets as a thing -- notice how there was zero reaction from the Academy about the idea of the felt-faced creatures hosting this year, followed by the apparent decision not to have either tune nominated for best song to perform them live this year.

At the risk of repetition (risky business!) I think The Muppets will win -- and should win -- this Oscar, both because the song is far better than the one in RIO and also as a more general thank you to the creative types behind The Muppets for not screwing it up.

Then again, RIO grossed hundreds of millions of dollars more than The Muppets and the Oscars are all about rewarding the mainstream moneymakers.

As I said, a bunch of overpaid pretentious cunts.

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