Gringo's Twelfth Oscar Prediction Funfest
Written By: Gringo

Has it really been 12 wonderful years that I've written an annual Oscar prediction piece?

Well, if you consider that in British English "wonderful" means "I'm sorry, the test came back showing traces of syphilis" then yes, the opening sentence is entirely accurate.

Every year I pick an Oscar category -- usually the one with the least nominees, because it means less writing -- and predict the winner. That's padded out with some by now tired ranting about how vacuous Hollywood can be, and then bing-bang-boom we can call it a night.

My track record in successfully guessing the winner of the chosen category is shoddy at best, coming in somewhere under 50%. I could go back and re-read all 11 previous Oscar prediction articles and figure the exact number out, but if you're not going to re-read any of my stuff (and let's be honest, it's not even worth reading the first time round) then I'm certainly not.

So how do I break out of the ennui of writing the same type of article?

By doing exactly what I've done over more than a decade of churning out these pieces: pick a limited category, make some unfunny jokes, and sign off. I'm pretty lazy.

The Academy Award for Best Makeup and Hairstyling
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Miserables

Once again I've gone with the makeup category as it has the least number of nominees, which means the minimal amount of effort I could possibly have to put into this article. A caveat: I have not seen any of the three movies nominated, though I have seen quite a few Alfred Hitchcock movies and I've also seen Les Miserables on stage. So, consider me an expert.


Colonel Mustard in the library with the revolver

The category is for best makeup and hairstyling. Hitchcock was bald, Anthony Hopkins does not play the director as having discovered Dimoxinil. Ergo, a loss. Is that right use of "ergo"?

Chance of winning: 1%

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Check the Lego store: an unexpected price tag

Apparently this movie wasn't very good, and certainly far worse than the Lord of the Rings trilogy. But that former fat guy Peter Jackson has made many people in Los Angeles very rich, and they're going to want to reward him some way that doesn't involve giving him a significant Oscar.

In comes the makeup and hairdo award.

It's like being in high school and lusting after someone for months, finally working up the courage to ask them out to prom. And then miraculously they say yes. So you go to pick them up on the night, but you're greeted by them plus 12 of their friends -- they were just using you for the fancy limo you decided to invest in to try and seal the deal, in a pathetic attempt to secure breaking your virginity that night. You thought a limo was like a golden ticket into someone's pants.

But instead, you're sitting there while your goal talks to all their friends and largely ignores you. On the ride to the prom someone will inevitably have had too much to drink (at that age, half a beer) and thrown up in the back seat of the limo, which you'll have to resolve with the irate driver.

Finally you'll make it into the prom and be rebuffed every time you try to dance with your intended. You'll wish that someone spiked the punch, except not really because you've never touched alcohol before and you don't know what it'll do to you. So instead you find an excuse to leave the room -- faking a phone call even though everyone can see your iPhone didn't light up with one -- and walking home, because you're 16 and you don't plan to take taxis to places at that age.

When you get home your parents will ask you how prom was and you'll shrug your shoulders and say "fine," and you mean it in the literal sense of the word. It wasn't good, it wasn't bad. It was fine. You got to at least talk to and see your crush. And those memories will fuel an angry bout of masturbation to close the night, the silver lining of the evening.

That's the same as Peter Jackson winning nothing but the makeup Oscar for The Hobbit.

Chance of winning: 75%

Les Miserables

This image kept coming up when searching for "Les Miserables"

A bunch of grimy French Revolution types wander around Paris and its environs -- pretentious yet fitting word! -- and sing a lot. I'm not sure what criteria the members of the Academy use when choosing the winners for this category, though I'm sure that the likes of A-list directors, writers, and Oscar-winning stars like Mo'nique that make up the membership probably aren't sitting in their mansions debating how wonderfully ragged Anne Hathaway's hair looks in this movie.

So now that I've successfully discarded with the hairstyle argument, we move on to makeup. Nobody cares about any of the awards categories except the acting, writing (sometimes), directing and best picture nominees. So the Academy members certainly aren't going to analyze the lipstick and rouge that was applied for the cast of this movie. Hobbit feet are about as technical as they'll get.

In other words, dream a dream all you want, French waif, you're not going to win.

Chance of winning: 24%

But Gringo! The excitement! Who will win?!

It'll be The Hobbit. Just don't be surprised if Peter Jackson's velvet suit is not the only thing crushed that night. His heart still remembers prom.

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